Greater Tokyo resale condo values are still rising—but leadership is narrowing

Greater Tokyo’s resale condominium market is still moving higher, at least in index terms.

According to the latest JREI housing price index for existing condominiums, the Greater Tokyo composite rose to 146.28 in March 2026, up 0.74% month on month and marking a 27th consecutive monthly increase. On a year-on-year basis, the index was up 12.72%. That is another strong reading, and it reinforces the view that established urban residential markets in and around Tokyo remain resilient despite tighter affordability and a less straightforward transaction backdrop.

But the more interesting point is that the market is no longer moving in perfect unison.

Tokyo led the way again, with its index rising to 174.35, up 0.91% month on month after returning to growth. Chiba also continued to rise, reaching 97.68, up 1.62%, while Saitama climbed to 101.25, its seventh consecutive monthly increase. Kanagawa, by contrast, slipped 0.20% to 116.76. In other words, the overall Greater Tokyo story is still positive, but the drivers are becoming more uneven by prefecture.

For investors, that matters more than the headline streak.

When a composite index keeps rising but regional performance begins to diverge, it often points to a market that is becoming more selective rather than broadly stronger. Buyers may still be willing to pay up in locations with the deepest demand, strongest liquidity and clearest long-term appeal. But outside the strongest submarkets, momentum can start to fragment.

That fits a broader pattern now visible in Japan’s urban residential market. Prices in the best-supported areas remain firm, while buyers are becoming more price-sensitive elsewhere. The easy phase—when broad market momentum could carry almost everything higher—looks less convincing than before.

This does not mean the market is turning negative. A 27-month run of gains is hard to dismiss, and the year-on-year rise remains substantial. But it does suggest that the next phase of the cycle may be defined less by simple upward movement and more by where pricing power still holds.

That is usually how mature markets behave when affordability pressures rise and confidence becomes more selective. The headline still looks strong. Beneath it, leadership narrows.