Japan’s condo market topped ¥6tn in Q1

Japan’s condominium market exceeded ¥6 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, according to Tokyo Kantei, even though total transaction and supply volumes were lower than a year earlier. The combined national market size for new and existing condominiums reached ¥6.07 trillion, up 12.1% year on year, while total unit volume fell 3.9% to 117,937 units.

That combination is the interesting part. It suggests the market is still growing in value even without broad volume growth. In other words, higher pricing—not more units—is doing much of the work.

The bigger driver was the resale market. Existing condominium transactions accounted for ¥4.92 trillion of the total, up 15.3% year on year and marking a sixth consecutive quarterly record in Tokyo Kantei’s series. By contrast, the new-build segment came in at ¥1.16 trillion, up only 0.3%, though still back above the ¥1 trillion level.

For investors, that split matters. It suggests Japan’s condo market is increasingly being supported by liquidity and pricing in existing stock rather than a major expansion in new supply. That is broadly consistent with what we have been seeing elsewhere in Japan’s residential market: limited new stock in many areas, higher replacement costs, and continued pricing resilience in better-located assets. The result is a market that can still expand in value even when activity is not especially broad-based.

This does not automatically mean the market is overheating. But it does reinforce the idea that Japan’s residential story is becoming more selective. When value keeps rising despite lower volumes, the headline looks strong—but it can also imply a market where affordability is tightening and where the best-supported segments are pulling further away from the rest. That is likely to be particularly relevant in major urban markets, where new supply remains constrained and resale stock is increasingly important.

The practical takeaway is fairly straightforward. Japan’s condo market is still large and still growing in nominal value, but that growth is being driven more by price and by secondhand liquidity than by fresh supply. For investors, that is a useful reminder that the strongest part of the market may not necessarily be the newest part.

Source: Tokyo Kantei, “新築・中古マンションの市場動向レポート（2026年第1四半期）”, published 1 May 2026.

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