Tokyo Apartment Prices Hit Records as Sales Slow

Greater Tokyo’s apartment market is producing two apparently contradictory signals: record new-build prices and fewer resale transactions. The tension becomes clearer when we separate the homes being launched from those changing hands—and distinguish a six-month record from September’s weaker trading.

The Real Estate Economic Institute puts the average launch price across Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba at ¥114.94 million for April–September 2026, up 21.1% annually. Launches fell 6.0% to 8,601. Expensive new projects and construction costs helped lift the average; this does not mean an equivalent apartment appreciated by 21%. Prices per square metre rose 18.8%, but that measure also reflects location and specification.

September tells a different price story. The average fell 4.1% annually to ¥95.52 million, while launches dropped 40.1% to 1,142. Only 50.4% of those newly released homes were contracted during the month, down four percentage points. Unsold stock reached 6,775, approximately 15.2% higher than a year earlier. The six-month initial contract rate actually improved slightly, so September’s weakness should not be projected backwards across the whole period.

Our earlier resale analysis found 3,457 September transactions, down 22.7%, alongside inventory growth of 15.1%. Its ¥51.11 million average achieved price describes a different pool of homes, averaging more than 28 years old. Comparing it directly with new-build launch prices would not establish the premium paid for an equivalent new apartment. Both annual comparison months follow REINS’ January 2025 reporting change.

Developers also have different reasons to wait. Sumitomo Realty & Development explicitly describes a policy of selling completed apartments patiently without readily discounting them. In May, it said most homes due to be recorded as sales in the year ending March 2027 were already contracted. That supports price discipline even when market activity slows.

Nor is demand uniformly weak. Mitsui Fudosan reported that, by June end, contracts covered 83% of its planned new-condominium deliveries for the financial year. That earlier, company-specific result cannot explain September, but it challenges the idea that buyers have disappeared everywhere.

Mortgage affordability adds pressure. MUFG has raised its variable-rate reference, although borrowers’ actual rates and adjustment dates differ. Illustratively, an ¥80 million repayment mortgage over 35 years costs about ¥208,000 monthly at 0.5%, against ¥245,000 at 1.5%. That assumes constant rates and excludes fees. The difference shows the constraint; it does not quantify its contribution to falling sales.

Comparable-property evidence also lags. JREI’s repeat-sales index rose 0.42% across Greater Tokyo in July; it cannot resolve September’s price picture. The immediate signal is weaker liquidity, with the broader direction of equivalent-property values less settled.

For buyers and owners, the useful questions are increasingly specific: which homes are selling, how long does it take, and what price secures a transaction? A record average cannot answer them.

Sources
- Real Estate Economic Institute — April–September 2026 new-build market
- Real Estate Economic Institute — September 2026 new-build market
- Tokyo real estate association — REINS September resale results
- Sumitomo Realty & Development — strategy statement
- Mitsui Fudosan — first-quarter results commentary
- MUFG — variable mortgage reference rates and adjustment rules
- Japan Real Estate Institute — July 2026 repeat-sales index
- Uchi Insights — earlier Greater Tokyo resale analysis