> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.uchiinsights.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Tokyo Property Prices Keep Rising, But Buyers Are Starting To Push Back - URL: https://www.uchiinsights.com/tokyo-property-prices-keep-rising-but-buyers-are-starting-to-push-back/ - Published: 2026-08-27T01:42:42.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-02T04:37:29.000Z - Description: Greater Tokyo resale apartment prices are still climbing at double-digit annual rates, but a sharp fall in broker sentiment suggests buyers are becoming increasingly resistant to today’s prices. - Author: Chris Pickering - Tags: tokyo real estate Tokyo’s residential property market is producing an increasingly interesting contradiction. Prices are still rising strongly, yet the people dealing directly with buyers are becoming noticeably less confident about the strength of the sales market. The Japan Real Estate Institute’s latest residential price index shows the Greater Tokyo existing-condominium market reaching 149.19 in June, up 1.05% from May and 10.54% from a year earlier. It was the 30th consecutive month of month-on-month growth, extending a run that has taken resale values substantially above their pre-pandemic levels. Tokyo remained the strongest part of the market, with its index rising 1.19% during the month to 176.41\. Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama also increased, with Saitama recording its tenth consecutive monthly rise. On the price data alone, there is little evidence yet of a broad correction. The mood among local estate agents, however, is beginning to look rather different. ### Buyers Are Becoming More Cautious AtHome’s quarterly survey of 1,937 established real estate agencies found that the Greater Tokyo sales-market DI fell 2.7 points to 44.8 during the April-to-June quarter. The index measures conditions relative to the same period a year earlier, with 50 representing an unchanged market, so a reading below 50 indicates that agents generally feel conditions have weakened. The sharpest change came in Tokyo’s 23 wards, where the sales DI dropped 6.9 points to 44.4\. Agents reported that buyers were becoming more cautious after the sustained rise in property prices, with some saying that households were abandoning purchase plans altogether because homes had simply become too expensive. The outlook is softer again. Greater Tokyo agents expect the sales DI to fall to 39.3 in the July-to-September quarter, while the equivalent forecast for the Kinki region is 35.9\. These are sentiment measures rather than transaction forecasts, but they provide useful evidence that affordability is becoming more prominent in buyer decisions. Interestingly, the rental market remains much healthier. Greater Tokyo’s rental DI was 51.6 in the latest quarter, still above the 50 level, while Tokyo’s 23 wards recorded 53.7\. Agents reported that higher-paid renters were continuing to absorb elevated rents, even as rising costs discouraged some households from moving. That divergence between sales and rentals is another indication that the underlying demand for housing has not disappeared. What appears to be changing is the price at which households are willing or able to become owners. ### Prices And Sentiment Do Not Have To Move Together It may seem unusual for prices to rise by more than 10% annually while brokers simultaneously report weakening sales conditions, but the two measures are capturing different things. The residential price index records the prices at which existing apartments are transacting. The sentiment survey reflects how easily agents feel deals are being done across the wider market. A shrinking group of buyers can continue competing for desirable properties at high prices even while more price-sensitive households step away. There are also supply-side reasons why prices can remain firm. New housing has become considerably more expensive to deliver because of land values, labour shortages and higher construction costs. That makes well-located existing apartments more difficult to replace cheaply and can provide support to prices even as affordability deteriorates. The effect is likely to be particularly strong in central Tokyo, where available land is limited and high-income domestic and international buyers remain active. A buyer unable to afford a ¥150 million apartment does not necessarily cause that apartment to fall in value if another buyer is still prepared to pay the price. Instead, the market becomes narrower. This is why a slowdown in sentiment should not automatically be interpreted as the beginning of a major price decline. ### The Market May Be Moving From Growth To Selectivity The more plausible near-term scenario is a market in which quality, location and price become increasingly important. During a strongly rising market, buyers can become more accepting of ambitious asking prices because there is a fear that waiting will simply make property more expensive. Once affordability becomes stretched and financing costs begin to rise, that behaviour changes. Buyers spend longer comparing properties, negotiate harder and become more willing to walk away from stock that does not justify its price. That can produce a market where excellent apartments still sell quickly and set new records, while weaker properties sit for longer or require reductions. Average prices may continue rising because the strongest part of the market remains active, even while overall conditions become more difficult. For investors, this distinction is more useful than trying to call the exact top of the Tokyo market. A 10.5% annual rise in the Greater Tokyo index is clearly strong, but the deterioration in broker sentiment suggests it should not be extrapolated indefinitely. The same principle applies outside the capital. In Japan’s resort markets, rising destination prices can coexist with much greater discrimination between a finished, well-located property and a development site carrying construction or delivery risk. A strong market does not mean every asset deserves the same premium. ### Affordability Is Becoming The Constraint To Watch For several years, Japanese property has benefited from an unusually supportive combination of low interest rates, a weak yen, international demand and rising construction costs. Those conditions have helped prices move higher even while Japan’s broader demographic story remained weak. The environment is now becoming more complicated. Interest rates are higher, the yen has recently strengthened from its lows and residential prices have already moved substantially. None of those factors necessarily reverses the market, but together they reduce the margin for error. The latest Tokyo data captures that shift well. Buyers are still paying record prices for the properties they want, while an increasing number appear unwilling to stretch further for those they do not. That is not yet evidence of a falling market. It is evidence of a market becoming more selective. For property investors, that may be the more important change to watch. Enjoyed this free article? Uchi Insights provides the latest market news from across Japan. But if you want the latest data, you can access premium Uchi Insights reports covering pricing, sales, supply and market trends across Japan’s leading resort real estate destinations Everything is available to Uchi Insights Premium subscribers, together with our complete archive of reports and analysis across Japan’s leading resort markets. Twelve months of Premium access costs US$200—roughly the price of a good pair of gloves for that Japanese powder snow. If you are buying, selling, investing or simply trying to understand where Japan’s resort property markets are moving, make sure you have the same data and analysis at your fingertips. ****Don’t be the one wondering what everyone else knows.** [Sign Up For Premium Now ](https://www.uchiinsights.com/premium/) > **Sources** > \- Japan Real Estate Institute, June 2026 Residential Property Price Index, as reported by R.E.port, 26 August 2026\. ([re-port.net](https://www.re-port.net/article/news/0000082713/?ref=uchiinsights.com)) > \- AtHome, *Survey of Business Conditions Among Local Real Estate Agencies*, April–June 2026, as reported by R.E.port, 26 August 2026\. ([re-port.net](https://www.re-port.net/article/news/0000082711/?ref=uchiinsights.com))